Trading Pub – 25 Jul 24

03:32: Introducing a volume peak indicator and discussing its limitations, noting that it should be used as one data point among many, not as a sole basis for trading decisions.
04:03: Tendency of traders to use a single indicator, emphasizing the need for a broader understanding of various metrics and indicators.
06:08: The volume peak indicator/past crypto market cycles.
12:06: The volume peak indicator against the current BTC market, finding that it currently indicates an early stage of the bull market.
15:07: On-chain metrics can provide valuable data points, but they should be treated as just one component of a broader market analysis.
17:21: No talk of tax hikes from presidential candidates, which could have implications for the crypto market.
21:37: Federal spending is increasing. The only way to fund this is through quantitative easing (QE) or a new policy like ‘Quantitative Support’ (QS).
27:36: Strong bullish conviction on crypto, dismissing the notion that the market has peaked.
28:27: The inverse correlation between the US dollar and Bitcoin, noting that Bitcoin rallies when the dollar falls and vice versa.
29:04: Major stock indices have experienced some volatility.
33:45: Alt bull market is driven by the ETH/BTC ratio bottoming out, which signals the start of the altcoin bull run.
38:15: Expected KAS pump is still expected to occur by the end of the current month.
40:26: Kaspa price has been pivoting around $18.2, with multiple attempts to break above it but ultimately closing below it.
42:05: Reminder to book tickets for the upcoming CUDL.
44:58: Bittensor documentary to be released in the next few days.
46:37: Even the best traders can eventually lose money when using leveraged trading strategies like shorting or longing.
48:04: Tao is in the AI narrative, which will be a major focus next year.
01:00:03: The historical trend of the total crypto market cap and the deviations from it.
01:07:07: Whether the TAO to Kaspa flip is worth it, and discussing the potential outcomes of the two assets’ price movements.
01:07:31: The rationale behind the portfolio rebalancing, including the expectation of a quicker price increase in Kaspa compared to TAO.
01:10:22: Historical patterns of Bitcoin’s price peaks, which have typically occurred within 23 days of December 1st, and the implications for the timing of the next market cycle peak.
01:12:44: The historical pattern of altcoins peaking after Bitcoin, and the potential to use Bitcoin’s peak as a signal to exit the market.
01:16:25: Moving to cash in an IRA during a market crash, and then waiting for potential government stimulus measures to invest back into the market.
01:23:38: Turned off by projects that favor the team over the public.
01:25:15: Risks of using privacy coins, and the Tornado Cash incident as an example of the regulatory crackdown on such coins.
01:33:36: The concept of autonomous AI agents (AAAs) and how they can be used to automate various business tasks.
01:41:06: Elon Musk’s to create a Bittensor-like platform called XAI, which will provide $5 billion in funding for new AI startups.
01:44:45: Upcoming launch of Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) developed by Tramath Palihipitaya, which may be used by XAI in the future.
01:52:38: How AI could help a friend’s business that trains sim racers to transition to physical racing cars.
01:56:11: The potential for future AI systems with video capabilities to provide real-time, offline feedback and training to drivers during races, without the need for internet connectivity.