Trading Pub – 21 Mar 24


03:00: Defining objectives and determining what type of system and hours can be allocated for trading/learning.
06:24: Importance of knowing risk to reward ratios and stop losses. When is your thesis on a project invalidated and you need to exit?
07:33: Willingness to exit positions without hesitation if thesis is invalidated. Weak hands vs pragmatic risk management.
10:54: Expected bull market peak of Q3/Q4 2025 but uncertainty on impact of this knowledge being more widely known.
12:00: Importance of analysing past performance to improve – what went well, what didn’t, and mistakes made.
16:30: Taking profits and scaling out after 10x gains to lock in life changing money even if further upside is possible.
17:31: Importance of taking profits and setting aside for taxes to avoid being bankrupt if market turns against you when tax is due.
22:30: Merits of a static buy-and-hold portfolio vs actively managing trades to try and outperform the market.
23:21: Siam’s active portfolio performance vs a static portfolio as a benchmark.
24:45: Upcoming ETF approvals, interest rate cuts and stimulus could provide tailwinds for crypto.
26:55: Focus on defining clear exit triggers to avoid getting left with no positions if a bear market emerges.
28:04: Rate cuts and stimulus will lead to ‘insane pumponomics’ for crypto prices.
32:49: Expecting ‘grey swan’ event like war escalation, pandemic or cyberattack to trigger stimulus.
36:48: Tensor subnets represent a ‘virgin landscape’ with huge potential but requires extensive research.
37:33: You should be ‘obsessed’ with understanding Tensor subnets and their opportunities.
40:15: Exiting positions into GBP for capital expenditures and stablecoins like USDC for yield.
43:06: Options for exiting large crypto positions worth millions including stablecoins like USDC for yield and partial fiat.
45:37: Past stablecoin depegging events, analysis of market caps over time for USDC, USDT, DAI and others to assess stability.
51:00: Overview of using GPU rigs for AI workloads through platforms like Claw to earn yield in Bitcoin by renting out compute power.
01:00:14: Neuromorphic computing could disrupt graphics card industry, reservations about DynX CEO possibly being a convicted fraudster Daniel Matters based on evidence found.
01:06:09: What might happen to DynX price if it was publicly revealed that CEO was Daniel Matters, a convicted fraudster.
01:09:00: Risk of new Tau lending protocol TauBank not worth potential gains given closeness to portfolio goals being reached.
01:16:36: How stock markets have historically performed after Fed pauses rate hikes.
01:19:46: Fed challenges given outdated rear-view mirror data used for decisions.
01:20:15: Rate cuts by central banks and their effect on stock market booms and subsequent crashes.
01:23:26: Rising gold prices signify failing confidence in fiat currencies due to currency dilution.
01:25:05: Safely waiting out a crypto bear market.
01:26:15: Plan to hold stablecoins for 1+ years before re-entering crypto in time for the next bull run in 2029.
01:30:38: Discussion of tokenised gold funds and whether Paxos Gold could be a safe option for gold exposure.
01:31:59: Discussion of using Tesla stock to ride out the coming bear market, as the company’s revenue will shift to robotics.
01:41:07: Rising compression pattern seen on Tau chart that could indicate a pullback in the short term.
01:46:01: Pre-approval for ZAPI to list on Mexc after Taunu’s listing, pending raising of $120k listing fee.
01:47:53: Lack of trading activity on the Tau Inu chart since its listing on Mexc, questioning if it was listed too early with only 3,000 holders.
01:51:31: With only 1,200 holders, too early to list ZAPI on Mexc based on the experience of Tau Inu’s listing.
01:52:48: AIT has over 16,300 holders, making it a better candidate than ZAPI currently to pursue a Mexc listing given its larger user base.
01:53:02: Holder distribution for AIT showing potential for growth, though a 4% buy tax is a deterrent from purchasing more currently.
01:55:35: The position in Com AI has been exited and rolled into AIT instead.
02:00:47: Being worried about home invasions
02:16:37: Process of taking over Zapi from previous developer who gave up and had defeatist attitude. Plans to clean up links and do rebranding.
02:19:02: Feedback on 3 potential new Zapi logos.
02:24:58: Using bear markets to generate tax losses through wash trading and offset capital gains tax liability.
02:26:09: Suggestion to take out loans against crypto holdings such as Bitcoin on platforms like Aave as an alternative to selling.
02:26:54: Whether to sell Tau or Kaspa based on technical analysis. Suggestion to sell Kaspa and potentially move funds to Tau.

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