Trading Pub – 10 Oct 24

00:10: Issues with Siam’s flotation therapy spa business, including financial and operational challenges.
04:14: Market insights on Bitcoin and Ethereum, noting potential weaknesses but remaining generally bullish on crypto.
11:39: Rumours about Justin Sun and Tron, and analyzes Grayscale’s AI Fund and BitTensor Trust, noting changes in asset allocations and potential future inflows.
14:50: Potential threats to crypto, such as massive ETF outflows, but remaining optimistic about Tether’s continued growth.
20:36: Forecasting beyond AGI is impossible as it will fundamentally change everything, and BlackRock plans to tokenize the bond and real estate markets.
21:47: AI growth and adoption is faster than crypto, which is faster than the internet’s adoption rate – an unprecedented acceleration.
30:39: Placed a short position on Nervos (CKB) based on a technical analysis of a double top pattern and Kobo breakdown.
32:51: Kaspa’s technology is impressive, but political issues with core developers may hinder its short-term adoption and growth potential.
40:05: Tao price not affected by subnets, and working with FirstTensor to improve BitAds, which will require advertisers to buy Tao monthly.
41:35: Subnets will have liquidity pools for their tokens, but subnet owners won’t directly receive Tao.
43:41: No Tao burning in liquidity pools, only matching Tao with subnet tokens and holding.
47:34: Need more user-friendly explanations of subnets and their functionality for average users.
49:48: Example subnet earning over $300K per month with just 1.44% emissions, highlighting the profit potential.
52:39: Holding 89% of portfolio in Tao, with a small hedge in Kaspa in case Tao underperforms.
55:25: Expect Kaspa to continue falling to around $0.125, then potentially bounce back up.
56:59: Tao and Kaspa have both outperformed Bitcoin, highlighting their strong performance.
57:48: Monitoring a Render trade, will exit if the $4.8 support level is breached.
01:01:04: Consider shorting Link on a pullback to the neckline support level.
01:03:34: The recent increase in Bitcoin hash rate, potentially linked to Russia.
01:05:54: Ethereum needs to wake up and lead the altcoin market out of the current slump, and the total crypto market cap has broken out of a compression pattern.
01:21:33: Price difference between spot and futures markets due to arbitrage.
01:24:45: Businesses using AI to automate and reduce hiring, leading to mass layoffs.
01:25:35: Indicators that would invalidate the Tao investment thesis, such as large holders reducing positions.
01:34:15: Potential support levels for BasedAI, with a possible 50% pullback first.
01:41:37: Mantra is a new layer-1 blockchain for real-world asset tokenization, similar to Sui. Discuss its potential as an alternative to Kaspa.
01:48:37: Book tickets for the upcoming CUDL and ski trip.