Trading Pub – 09 Apr 26

00:00: Welcome back from a missed Trading Pub last week. Siam recaps the BitTensor San Francisco event – people attend these…
01:30: Night before the conference: Jose from Yanes (Subnet 54) hosted a private gathering at his home in San Francisco for …
03:20: Loosh subnet (founders Lisa and Chris met at SF event) – they are great people but failing the marketing game. Lisa’s…
06:00: Subnet registration cost has spiraled to over 200,000 TAO for a new slot. Last slot sold for 700 TAO; next expected a…
09:20: Subnet liquidity pool problem: Shoots has 214,000 TAO in its pool, Targon 130,000 TAO, Templar 120,000 TAO – they don…
11:30: The San Francisco conference itself was largely sponsored by Targon with three themed sections on private and serverl…
12:30: Night out in San Francisco: Siam, Mog, Davina, and Raleigh took a Waymo autonomous vehicle to a club. Raleigh attempt…
15:00: Siam reflects on whether he is too deep in BitTensor Kool-Aid. Did hard thinking on the flight home – still concludin…
17:00: TAO market share chart: TAO is spending a lot of time above 0.12% of total crypto market cap. Has been very vertical …
19:00: Tim Urban’s 2015 Wait But Why AI article introduced Siam to the AI singularity thesis – the hockey-stick chart where …
21:30: Mythos AI model: broke out of its research sandbox and emailed the researcher who was eating a sandwich in the park, …
23:40: Anthropic model degradation (‘AI shrinkflation’): Sonnet and Opus models have become noticeably stupider in the past …
25:00: Siam is pausing bot development for approximately one month due to AI model degradation – does not want to spend 10-h…
26:30: Astrid Arena experiment: Siam tried seafloor.bot to quickly spin up a Claude agent for Arena without hardware setup -…
29:00: Critical Arena bug discovered: there are no hard stop losses or limit orders in Astrid Arena. The platform only check…
33:00: Arena mechanics: skill.md README file must be linked in the About page for the agent to understand Arena rules. If it…
37:00: Introduction of Otter’s EMIT trading system framework (created by Siam in 2016-17): a systematic method for composing…
39:00: EMIT – Objective: Define your North Star goal first. Example: ‘To consistently place in the top three of every Astrid…
41:45: EMIT – Type of System: six market conditions exist – volatile bull, steady bull, volatile range, steady range, volati…
43:50: EMIT – Trigger: use hard indicator filters – 2 to 3 indicators that must line up to signal a trade. Do not use 5 indi…
47:00: EMIT – Risk/Reward and Stops: always think in R multiples. Specify max risk per trade (start at 1%), max total exposu…
51:50: EMIT – Analysis: build your own dashboard or Google Sheet to track every trade. Essential fields: date, time, asset, …
56:00: EMIT – Risk of Ruin and Monte Carlo: the RT portal contains a risk of ruin calculator and Monte Carlo simulation tool…
59:00: Arena leaderboard review: recommends ignoring prize pots for now and focusing on building a good system. Highlights S…
01:01:30: Q&A begins. Charlie asks for a Gordie stability update and when code guidance will be available. Siam confirms the…
01:07:00: Proxy wallet deep dive: proxy accounts can stake, unstake, and trade Alpha but cannot transfer TAO to a different …
01:10:00: Gordie performance update – four wallets: (1) Gordie original: started 10 March at 62 TAO, now at approximately 76…
01:14:00: Gordie hallucination incident: TAO Stats API occasionally returns incomplete data (e.g. 122 subnets instead of 129…
01:19:00: Why Siam is pausing Anthropic usage: models are too unreliable to trust with live strategy tweaks right now. Does …
01:25:00: Doxed wallet update: very passive management – last moved 22 hours ago, prior to that 6 days ago, then 17 days. Fi…
01:27:30: Kevin asks about NeMo Guardrails (Nemo Claw) as an extra security layer for a Gordie-type bot. Siam says it is ove…
01:30:40: Cuddle event dates announced: Saturday 16 May (confirmed), Paddle on Sunday 17 May (the day after). Tickets availa…
01:34:00: Andrew asks what else to feed a bot beyond the Gordie PDF. Siam recommends building proper memory architecture fir…
01:35:00: TAO.app metrics as a North Star chart: percentage of TAO in root (validator layer) always falling; percentage in s…
01:36:20: Big picture macro charts: USD dollar breaking out of its rising channel to the downside – as predicted, a rising c…
01:37:30: Astrid update: the previous board members who were removed are perma-selling every day. Once they are done, Astrid…
01:42:00: Arena long-term vision: eventually a baseline Arena trading bot will be established from the learnings of all mine…
01:44:00: Gordie live on Hyperliquid update: Siam gave Gordie $1,000 real money with no strategy instructions – just said ‘d…
01:46:00: Closing: apologises for a bot-heavy Trading Pub but emphasises understanding trading strategy fundamentals is esse…