Trading Pub – 07 Mar 24

00:16: Discussing recent crypto scams, including being scammed out of seed phrase.
20:02: Upcoming supply squeeze from ETF buying of $2.5B per week and mining reward halving driving prices up.
26:21: Realising wildest life goals with token hitting $5-7k and minimum requirements for projects being achievable with 10x returns.
28:36: HBAP foundation for philanthropic projects like forests and beekeeping.
31:05: Forecasts for 10x return by end of 2022 and 30x return by end of bull run based on token performance.
33:11: Details on Project Musk including seed funding, venture capital plans and arms in retail, haulage and robotics.
39:59: Rates remain high globally and future cuts will stimulate, but reactivity is needed given uncertainty.
40:03: Potential for stock market crash followed by crypto dip but recovery. Interest rates, inflation, unemployment signals point to crash.
40:28: BitTensor behaves independently of Bitcoin due to different narrative and supply squeezes in crypto and ETFs.
43:09: Possibility of double peak cycle with drop after rate cuts or blow off top before downturn. Previous crypto bull run during COVID stimulus and rate cuts.
47:17: Tau Inu needs $120k raised to get listed on MEXC – $60k for market maker liquidity and $60k for community. Whales asked to contribute $60k with rest from community.
56:27: How listings work including basic listing fee and paying market makers for liquidity depth. $30k USDT and $30k tokens needed for Tau Inu on Mexi.
57:45: 1% fee added on Tau Inu swap site transactions but funds stuck due to gas fees to deposit in Uniswap pool wallet.
59:39: Additional high gas fee charged to transfer 1% funds to pool due to using Uniswap in backend.
01:06:38: Importance of ETH/BTC cross for signaling start of altcoin season and further pump of Bitcoin dominance expected.
01:09:59: Continued discussion of ETH/BTC ratio analysis and expectations for further pump of Bitcoin dominance to around 60% before crash signaling start of alt season.
01:11:39: Microstrategy’s strategy of borrowing at low rates to accumulate Bitcoin and potential future effects.
01:13:12: Analysis of Kaspa price chart showing double bottom formation and expectation for further fall before gradual rise to new all-time highs. Plan to sell Casper on Mexie order book.
01:13:14: The potential feedback loop as Microstrategy acquires more Bitcoin, increases in value, and gains access to larger investment pools.
01:17:21: Selling Kaspa on MEXC order book without moving price by matching buy orders and filling orders in small batches.
01:18:04: Microstrategy entering the S&P 500 could force widespread Bitcoin exposure for major funds.
01:19:22: Tower supply squeeze and near impossibility of buying tower due to tight supply.
01:26:21: Selling Kaspa and buying TAO rather than large limit orders to avoid influencing the market.
01:28:57: Plan to send tao from Mexc to delegator wallet and then stake it.
01:30:02: Alt charting including toa, Kaspa, DNX, clore, zappy, atom, etc.
01:35:28: Reasons for selling tao near previous top based on price action and expectation of pullback from spike.
01:38:42: Does 1000 monthly increase in tao price till end of cycle seem practical?
01:39:33: Plan to show 2017 bitcoin chart as example of expected market movements.
01:43:40: It now costs 4000 tao (around $3 million) to set up a new subnet and the price doubles each time a new subnet is created.
01:44:11: Someone paid over 2069 tau (around $500k) to set up a new subnet today, doubling the price.
01:46:02: Bitcoin fractal chart and prediction that Bitcoin price will reach $200k based on stock-to-flow model.
01:51:01: Total crypto market cap could reach $11.66 trillion by 2025 and that Ethereum’s market share may decrease.
01:52:00: Previous bull cycles were driven by smart contracts in 2017 and DeFi in 2021. Prediction that AI will be the main narrative and driver in 2025 cycle.
01:56:05: Power law chart predicting tao could be $50 by end of 2029 bull run based on previous cycles.
02:00:14: The 2029 cycle high for Bitcoin should be around $500k and Kaspa should be $50 based on a regression formula.
02:03:15: Giovanni has been discussing the stock-to-flow model recently but then launched an attack on it this week, which was a surprise.
02:11:45: Rebalancing and sharing updated portfolio pie chart with prices for Tao, Casper, and Zappy.
02:13:12: Excitement expressed for 2026 based on predictions made earlier in the conversation.
02:20:18: Warning that bull markets cause the most stress from obsessively checking prices and experiencing euphoria and depression from price swings.
02:21:39: Suggestion to check prices monthly instead of daily to reduce stress.