Avenger Call – 23 Jan 24


00:15: Plan for tonight’s session
01:30: Quick look at price action
04.31: News – Trezor discloses 66K users affected by phishing attack
06.02: News – Do Kwon’s Terraform Labs files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection
07.15: News – SEC blames ‘SIM swap’ attack for hacked X account prior to official Bitcoin ETF approval
08.55: News – Nasdaq, Cboe apply to offer BTC ETF options trading, receive fast response
10.36: News – Mt. Gox confirms creditors’ Bitcoin addresses for repayment
17:55: Overview of what Grayscale is and how it works by buying Bitcoin on behalf of investors and issuing shares that track the price of Bitcoin.
19:36: Grayscale shares can trade at a premium or discount to the actual Bitcoin price, allowing investors to buy shares at a discount to buying Bitcoin directly.
20:01: Timing Grayscale Bitcoin Trust selling to benefit from price movements. Mentions benefits of timing selling right.
22:01: Tracking Grayscale Bitcoin Trust wallet transactions and seeing them start to move Bitcoin on January 12th. Small amounts initially but increasing over time.
26:11: FTX holding Grayscale Bitcoin Trust shares worth $950 million and looking to sell approximately two-thirds of that worth $600 million, with Grayscale facilitating the sale.
30:42: Grayscale’s role and whether it is dumping Bitcoin, affecting prices in both the short and long run.
30:53: Comparison of daily Bitcoin buying by ETFs, which has reached over 95,000 Bitcoin, versus daily Grayscale Bitcoin Trust selling of around 4,500 Bitcoin per day based on wallet tracking.
32:19: Investors who bought Grayscale Bitcoin Trust shares during the bear market now looking to take profits as the discount to net asset value evaporates with ETF approval and move to lower fee ETF providers.
33:35: People potentially selling around tax season to pay tax bills as another potential reason for Grayscale Bitcoin Trust selling.
37:40: On-chain analysis research implicating an unknown entity that purchased 100,000 Bitcoin in 2021 for $4.8 billion and selling last week at $49,000 for a $100 million profit, potentially impacting the price drop.
40:01: Recent price movements and whether FTX or Grayscale are responsible. Analysis shows sell pressure from multiple actors.
47:03: When fear is present in the market, it presents buying opportunities. Fear and Greed index has dropped from extreme greed to neutral.
51:02: Previous bull markets saw multiple 20%+ pullbacks that were opportunities, not things to fear. History shows consolidation below moving averages before continuing up.
57:09: Fibonacci retracements from previous cycle tops and bottoms have been hit precisely. 618 level at $38k is the next key support.
59:26: Whether recent price action has formed a top or if further rises are still possible in a W pattern.
01:05:02: Fibonacci retracement levels between 34,337 and 37,000 as areas of interest to enter positions.
01:09:37: Issues with Polkadot’s open governance system and lack of caps on funding proposals.
01:13:49: A specific $300k brand awareness proposal by influencer Crypto Banter and debate around it.
01:20:07: Harry’s research process including setting up watchlists on CoinMarketCap and looking at projects that have fallen the most in the past week for potential buying opportunities.
01:23:01: Portfolio allocation including looking at top 20-30 coins for 5-10x potential and lower market cap coins for higher risk/reward 20-30x opportunities.
01:25:11: The Gold Fever gaming token including 98% price drop from launch, current market cap of $4m, and need to research the actual game. High risk opportunity.
01:27:05: Alliance Block including one year price history, $90m market cap, over 90% token supply already circulating, and ability to buy on exchanges.
01:28:51: Mining stocks like Marathon Digital and Hut 8 as potential investment opportunities to gain crypto exposure through SIPP/ISA funds until UK Bitcoin ETF availability.
01:36:15: Potential buy zones and price levels for projects like Astar, BMEX, FET, Flux and Manta based on technical analysis. Waiting for further price drops to optimal entry points.
01:40:08: Recent price movements and analysis of FET, noting it uses AI agents to focus on tasks.
01:41:51: Technical analysis of Polkadot price chart, prediction of further drop to $5.
01:42:35: Recent price action of TAU and decision not to re-enter position yet due to expectation of further fall.
01:46:08: Technical analysis of Ethereum price relative to Bitcoin, noting faster waterfall correction and risk of break below support. Discussion of ETH/BTC chart and continued downward pressure.
01:47:00: Technical analysis of Kaspa price chart, prediction of further fall to Fib retracement levels at 6-7 cents with ladder buys planned on the way down. Reference to other analyst’s model suggesting fall to 5.5 cents.
01:50:24: Upcoming speaking slot at a CUDL event in two weeks to share views on predictions and temper expectations.

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