Trading Pub – 25 Jan 24

07:13: Bitcoin’s halving cycle and prediction that we are entering a bull market that will last for the next year.
12:43: Altcoins like Kaspa and Tao have not started their major runs yet and will see dramatic pullbacks.
15:06: Less informed community members to spend 10-20 hours over the next few weeks/months going through educational material to increase their knowledge base.
17:01: Constantly scout for on and off ramp opportunities and ensure portfolios are properly positioned ahead of major price moves.
20:18: Potential total crypto market cap reaching 7.8 trillion by end of 2025 and Casper/Tau market share predictions ranging from 1.2-10% of total market cap.
22:31: Focusing on AI sector like Kaspa/Tao due to exponential growth of AI in real world.
24:35: Potential Kaspa/Tao prices if they reach various percentage levels of total predicted 7.8 trillion crypto market cap.
30:05: Benefits of staking coins long-term due to yield being paid out in the coin itself, increasing in value if coin price rises over time.
34:08: Example calculation showing potential monthly yield from staking 57 Kaspa at 10% APR even if Kaspa only reaches $5,000 per coin.
38:52: Prediction that Ethereum will outpace Bitcoin significantly due to institutional money flowing into the deflationary Ethereum network.
40:46: Past price predictions for Tao reaching $500 and $1000. Belief that Tao will disconnect from Bitcoin price.
43:06: Tao could reach 5% of average crypto market cap which would be $37k based on current numbers.
44:07: Comparison of Tao and Bitcoin charts, belief that Tao chart looks achievable on log scale like Bitcoin did.
46:33: Tao is developing rapidly in the subnet space and outpacing others.
47:21: Recent bullish candle on Tao daily chart.
51:49: TA showing bullish inverted head and shoulders pattern on Tao/Kusama chart.
01:01:02: How thin the order book is and how a single person could have moved the Bitcoin price from 342 to 500 with just over 1 million dollars.
01:08:52: No crypto shillers are talking about TAO since there is no marketing fund, showing it is still early.
01:10:11: All crypto investments carry risk of the project failing or something coming up, as happened with Dynex.
01:11:12: Caution against making irrational investment decisions like remortgaging for Bitcoin Tensor based on price predictions alone without understanding risk.
01:17:07: Popular crypto influencer BitBoy will discover Tao after mistakenly referring to it, accumulate a position, and then heavily promote it to drive retail interest.
01:21:03: TAU charts and Harry’s portfolio allocation to TAU. Suggestion to front run Harry’s buying of TAU.
01:24:34: Strategy some players use to get fills by temporarily impacting price levels.
01:27:04: KAS charts and prediction of further falling before potential double bottom.
01:30:00: Plan to sell some TAU to reallocate to KAS to capitalise on potential pump from 10 TPS on mainnet.
01:32:07: Lack of interest in BTC and view that it will revisit previous support level.
01:33:20: Lack of research focus on gaming coins and consideration of removing gaming positions to reallocate funds.
01:40:11: Leaning towards removing positions without AI focus and being fully allocated to KAS and AI projects.
01:41:32: Brief discussion of TIA outperforming Kaspa and how it did against HOW. Prediction that TAO will pull back after recent gains.
01:43:24: Ripple is a ‘shit coin’ and prediction it will fall to a support level.
01:45:08: Prediction of AVAX entering a support level then breaking out similar to how HOW did previously.
01:48:02: View that the ETH/BTC play is not over and ETH will fall further against BTC before breaking out upwards dramatically.
01:53:12: Recommendation to have both price targets and market analysis based exits from TAO. Price target of $6,500 mentioned.
01:56:54: Bitcoin moves with stocks but difficulty providing an exact exit level.
01:58:20: Any stock market crash would be a drawn out process rather than a quick event, allowing time to exit.
02:01:34: Different validator options like bit tensor and open tensor foundation and marketing tactics used by some validators.
02:05:40: Using multiple validators is a good security measure.
02:07:50: Preference for Kaspa over solana given kaspa’s focus on scalability through increasing blocks per second versus transactions per second.
02:13:14: Summary of kaspa’s strategy to build scalable infrastructure like railroad in 19th century America to enable global adoption over decades rather than focus on short term goals.
02:17:35: Difficulty determining exit points given lack of historical data and risk of peaks being just below expectations.
02:21:38: A past price spike in another cryptocurrency being caused by a single buyer FOMOing in. Prediction that Tao could reach $5,000 this cycle.
02:25:47: The Multitask game, how it helped with Siam’s pilot aptitude tests in the past by improving multitasking abilities.
02:30:00: Announcement of an CUDL