Trading Pub – 05 Apr 24

00:24: TA discussion of TAO and KAS, predicting $1000 TAO price by May.
09:08: Portfolio allocation targets, wanting to increase Kaspa holding to 15% from current 9.3% by selling some TAO.
12:33: Preference for fewer high-conviction positions in TAO and KAS due to lower risk and informational advantage over many small holdings.
13:11: Portfolio holdings lead to ‘informational negligence’ where one cannot keep up with each project.
16:01: TAO as an AI tracker fund similar to stock market indices, making it a form of diversification with 32 projects to follow.
18:35: Kaspa fractal analysis having moved higher than original model but with same price action.
20:06: Towel cast chart and which coin may grow faster.
21:02: Another ‘attack’ occurring in the market and there is no clear pattern, though one could be forced.
26:46: Checking current DNX holdings and plans to sell remaining positions and put proceeds into cash.
27:22: Checking other portfolio ‘pots’ to see if any other positions need rebalancing.
29:35: Whether to rebalance small arc position into Kaspa for informational edge?
29:54: Analysis of Bitcoin chart, it looks messy. Plans to do a ‘spring clean’ and start over on the chart.
31:02: Fractal model of Bitcoin price and prediction of a pullback post-halving before continuing upward trend.
35:03: Cannot discount impact of upcoming ETFs on price trends.
35:17: Bear market cannot happen until massive rate cuts and stimulus pumping by central banks.
37:04: Log chart of interest rates showing severity of recent hike sets up for huge cuts.
40:19: Altcoins haven’t had a major run yet and Bitcoin is breaking resistance.
47:08: Criteria for investing in coins that launched in the bear market like Tao and Kaspa.
49:26: Exploring getting a crypto.com Visa card and using it with Bitcoin.
53:59: Analysis of Crow price chart and potential upside for the crypto.com Visa card.
55:18: Focusing on growth and tax planning secondarily.
57:00: Steve’s tax video being the most popular on YT and to follow his advice.
01:00:25: Using an offshore company in BVI and not taking loans to repatriate funds to avoid tax when bringing money back to the UK.
01:03:16: Being in the gray zone is still legal but iffy, and there is typically a 5-7 year period before penalties are imposed, allowing for increased profits in the interim.
01:06:56: Setting up an offshore company that mirrors a domestic UK business with all revenue funnelled offshore is seen as a sham by HMRC.
01:13:00: Using personal crypto holdings to purchase a house and pay capital gains tax, as well as keeping most wealth offshore and not bringing it to the UK to avoid tax.
01:20:25: Hint about cash flow issues in crypto bear markets due to customer losses and having to liquidate crypto reserves to pay salaries.
01:21:39: Past cash flow issues in 2022 and 2018 that were alleviated by liquidating stacked crypto from bull markets.
01:26:03: Outlook for Ethereum price reaching $20k based on deflationary nature and potential for ETH ETF approval.
01:30:12: Potential for Bitcoin pullback in short term before pumping into May after halving event.
01:35:18: Brief overview of stablecoin market caps as a health indicator for crypto markets.
01:37:37: Looking at gas coin chart and consideration of buying gas at current price level of around $6 in anticipation of a pump.
01:40:26: Discussion of gas price movements and plans to enter if it drops further.
01:41:38: Moving gas higher on watchlist priority due to technicals.
01:43:09: Views on stability of stablecoins like USDC and USDT following LUNA crash.
01:48:50: 20,000+ BTC price is a 100% certainty due to upcoming macro conditions.