Trading Pub – 16 May 24

01:10: Comparing trading frequency to famous investors like Warren Buffett and Paul Tudor Jones who also take periods of inactivity.
13:33: Sitting idle to only take high probability trades when market conditions are favorable rather than forcing trades.
15:53: How marketing costs have risen 5-10x in recent years due to changes in privacy policies from tech giants, hurting many businesses.
17:00: Explains through a funnel example how high costs and low conversion rates mean many companies cannot profitably acquire customers through traditional marketing.
19:20: BitAds’ goal is to only charge advertisers for eyeballs that convert to sales, which would be highly disruptive if achieved.
20:04: Introducing Bit Ads platform that aims to only charge advertisers for sales generated through competitive mining process.
21:14: Very few marketers will do success-based marketing as it puts the risk on them instead of the business.
23:34: Billions in ad spend could flow into Bit Ads if it requires the TAO token.
26:13: Value in reading old Fed documents as they move slowly.
27:27: The Fed creates currency through open market operations with primary banks.
28:15: The Fed shares more than people realise if you look through what they publish.
31:00: Selling MBS assets will put negative pressure on US residential real estate.
33:07: Fed evidence proves crypto is going to the moon.
37:06: Being certain that interest rates will drop and stimulus will come based on this Fed finding.
40:04: How house prices lag currency supply increases and the best times to buy houses based on currency supply.
41:28: Strategy to ‘flip-flop’ with UK house prices by buying when prices hit lows and selling during price bounces.
43:15: Using Bit Ads to test driving traffic but ad was not approved, currently only approving BitTensor ads.
46:08: How Bit Ads can fully track conversions by creating the whole sales funnel through their platform.
47:51: BTC daily chart, expecting a pullback but still bullish long term.
53:02: Simple rising channel BTC is in on weekly log chart and expectation for rest of cycle.
57:30: Carbon credit system is a scam and large polluters can buy credits to offset emissions.
59:06: CO2 levels are historically low and carbon dioxide is beneficial for vegetation.
01:00:06: The scam of companies like BP offsetting large emissions by buying cheap carbon credits.
01:03:11: Making carbon credit prices very high to force companies to do meaningful emissions reductions like planting trees rather than just buying cheap credits.
01:05:27: Alts are unlikely to appeal until Bitcoin breaks above $70k.
01:07:12: Tron chart looking bullish with potential move to 14 cents in the short term.
01:07:51: Near chart recent breakout and identifying potential support at $8 level.
01:09:12: The history and science behind cloud seeding and examples of its use by militaries, companies and governments to influence weather.
01:20:11: Commercial real estate chart and lag between macro charts. Copper and gold/silver prices will fall when real estate starts to wobble.
01:24:03: Nassim Taleb’s VIX call option strategy that hits once a decade and makes large profits when VIX spikes to 50.
01:25:18: New Kaspa Risk Metric indicator from anonymous contact Miko Genno for analysing local highs and lows.
01:31:41: Kaspa Risk Metric indicator does not work well for BTC but may work for TAO on the daily chart.
01:35:43: Worked example of sidestepping half a TAO position from $380 to potential $350 re-entry.
01:42:41: Reminder about this weeks CUDL. Guest speaker mentioned to be awesome.